Comment permalink

Nick Franklin - Rollin th Dice on Projections (9)

Previous article

.

Q.  What's yer point?  That the draft is a only a crapshoot?

A.  So ... as amigos kick around thoughts like "this guy is a #5-10 overall but that guy's only a #20 overall," keep in mind that they're trying to measure atoms with yardsticks.

ML teams don't even know who is a 1st-rounder and who isn't.  Not on draft day, they don't.  So how are they going to know whether Nick Franklin is a #27 or a #7?  They're not.

That's not an indictment of the people doing the ammy drafting, who are the best in the world at what they do.  It's a simple observation that it isn't possible, on draft day, to tell who the best players in a draft are.

.

Q.  Can they tell how good low-minors players are?

A.  Not really.  Not in the first year or two.  Not usually.

Look, if you can't tell whether a 22-year-old college superstar (like, say, Dennis Raben) is going to be good -- and you can't -- why would you think that you can tell whether teenage minor leaguers are going to be good?

............

But some guys stand out like coal piles in ballrooms.  A few truly special guys become obvious, even at 19.  Nick Franklin is one of these.  Not only the scouts, but also the fans, are aware that he's going to be an impact player in the bigs.

Fun thing for the baseball fan, is to spot these guys ahead of time.  Michael Pineda was regarded a top-100 prospect this April; it was fun to realize that he was a top-10 and watch the rest of the country come up to speed.

Franklin's in that boat.  One of the great underrated spects in baseball right now.

.

Q.  What's the prognosis for Franklin in the bigs?  What kind of player will he be?

A.  Amigos asked about another post ::shower of crinkled Dixie cups:: comp'ing Franklin to each of these guys:  the Michael Young 2.0 template, the Craig Biggio 2.0 template, and the Troy Tulowitzki. 

We'll remember to Mano-a-Mano Franklin vs these three, but .... Bill James was once asked about what kind of hitter the Royals needed at first base.  His reply, "They need a good hitter anywhere."

There are many routes to 6.0 - 7.0 runs per 27 outs.  Doubles hitter, HR hitter, .320 hitter, etc etc.

I've got an inkling that Franklin could hit sort of like this 165-lb. shortstop did, with AVG first and (plenty of) PWR into the bargain -- and note that Franklin at age 19 is a better player than Nomah was at 19.

But of course, that guy had a Fenway-aided Mannyesque 1000 OPS+ in his prime, and Cranklin doesn't need to be quite that good to help us.  But remember that guy's .600 OPS next time you're wondering whether a smaller guy can ever get to .500.

.

Cheers,

Dr D